How parties change: history and theory of evolving positions in American politics

(timing & location subject to change)

Many of you will remember the Republican party of 2015, still sitting on the three-legged stool Reagan had crafted by 1985: fiercely opposed to Playboy and insistent on the importance of moral character in a leader, defense hawks afraid that the Democrat party was too weak to stand up to Russia, and concerned about both inflation and the deficit. Why has more change happened in the past ten years than the previous 30?
Or you may look at the Democratic party and ask "what does the future look like? What would winning and losing look like for various factions?"
Understanding the future is very difficult. Understanding the past is much easier: you just have to crack open a few books (including a little theory). I will give a talk on how parties have changed, and why.