Forecasting Space Timelines

Manifold mod, LessWrong lurker, professional rocket builder. Hobbies include Manifold math, rock climbing, photography, outdoorsy stuff.

15.4/40 attending

Chance I’d attend

"Elon time" is real. No one knows when anything will happen, and forecasts are hard, unrealistic, and (therefore) boring.

I have a thesis that we can do better. Multiple contingent forecasts, decompose into steps, ask which things happen first, and so on.

Feel free to bring other ideas for improvement!

We'll draw some diagrams and write some Manifold markets (or whatever).

Maybe with some software assistance.

Glass Hall·Aumann Hall, 1st floor

Manifold mod, LessWrong lurker, professional rocket builder. Hobbies include Manifold math, rock climbing, photography, outdoorsy stuff.

15.4/40 attending

Chance I’d attend

"Elon time" is real. No one knows when anything will happen, and forecasts are hard, unrealistic, and (therefore) boring.

I have a thesis that we can do better. Multiple contingent forecasts, decompose into steps, ask which things happen first, and so on.

Feel free to bring other ideas for improvement!

We'll draw some diagrams and write some Manifold markets (or whatever).

Maybe with some software assistance.