Trading geopolitical markets in the age of misinformation.

Geopolitical markets attract massive amounts of volume. Yet, they are one of the hardest markets to analyze. Additionally, in the recent years, misinformation and disinformation have spread across the media, impacting the quality of the reporting we base our forecasts on.

With inauguration of Trump, another issue appeared: a cycle of overpromising and underdelivering (to call it lightly).

Is assessing fair value even possible in such an environment? Or are we forced to swing trade Trump's Truth Social posts?