Conspiracy Theories and The Ways of Bayes

When do we (not) have evidence for a conspiracy theory? This talk shows how conspiracy theories exploit several components of probabilistic reasoning, leading to overconfidence. Bayes' theorem helps us see where common moves go wrong. Conversely, conspiracy theories turn out to be an excellent way to understand Bayes' theorem beyond thinking about base rates and odds. Prior attendance at the 10am conspiracy talk is not required but will complement this talk.